OTTAWA -- Despite U.S. President Donald Trump calling for votes already cast to stop being counted, thousands of Americans' ballots are still being tabulated to determine whether he is re-elected or Democratic challenger Joe Biden will clinch a tight victory as the next U.S. president.
And even still, expected recounts could mean once the winner is declared, there will be outstanding uncertainty about who will run the White House for the next four years, until that reverification process has been completed.
It’s not the first time an American election has remained too close to call for some time after election day.
Why is that? And how long could it be still before the next United States president is known? CTVNews.ca breaks down the path ahead to declare the winner of the remaining electoral college votes, and what further complicating role the American court system could play.
Broadly speaking, unlike in Canada where one central elections agency runs all elections in the 338 federal ridings, in the United States each state is a master of its own electoral destiny. In response to COVID-19, state legislators took differing approaches to how ballots would be cast and counted in a pandemic.
As a result, and as was flagged by electoral officials in the days and weeks leading up to Nov. 3, several key states have needed more time to scrutinize the outstanding ballots.
“Things have changed with mail-in voting… Counting votes cast by mail—if you're going to do it right and you're going to do it accurately because there's no other choice— takes a little bit of time. So, I know that's very frustrating. It's frustrating for you, it's frustrating for us,” said Philadelphia City Commissioner Al Schmidt on Wednesday.
Chair of Philadelphia City Commissioners Lisa Marie Deeley referred to the process as “an assembly line,” where ballots need to be sorted, opened, unfolded, and then scanned.
There are also differing rules around recount eligibility across the country, such as varying thresholds for how much of a vote differential there needs to be in order for a recount to be conducted, and who pays for it.
Generally speaking, the recounts need to be requested shortly after the results are initially certified, but the timeline required to complete the recounts differs across states.
WHICH STATES ARE OUTSTANDING?
According to The Associated Press, as of 11:30 a.m. EST on Friday, five states are still sorting through uncounted ballots, with the votes counted so far showing a too-close-to-call result. Between them are 60 electoral votes, of which Trump needs 56 to secure a victory, while Biden needs to lock in six.
GEORGIA: With 99 per cent of votes counted, results are expected on Friday. Biden has recently taken the lead, narrowly. There are 16 electoral college votes up for grabs in this state. However, even when the results are in, officials announced Friday morning that a recount will be held, and experts have suggested it could take weeks before a winner is called. Georgia allows candidates to request a recount in close races.
NEVADA: With 87 per cent of votes counted, results could come on Friday, but it may take more time. Biden currently holds a two-point lead. Election officials in Clark County, the state’s largest district which includes Las Vegas, plan to release the next batch of results on Friday. There are six electoral college votes up for grabs in this state. Nevada allows candidates to request a recount regardless of the margin.
PENNSYLVANIA: With 98 per cent of the vote counted, Biden has overtaken Trump’s lead. Results could come in Friday but votes will continue to be counted this weekend. There are 20 electoral college votes up for grabs in this state, and a win there for Biden would hand him the presidency as Trump needs those 20 votes to still forge a path to 270. In Pennsylvania, there is an automatic recount whenever there is a less than 0.5 percentage point difference. As of Friday at 5 p.m., Biden led by 0.2 points.
NORTH CAROLINA: With 94 per cent of votes counted, results could still take until next week to be finalized. There are 15 electoral college votes up for grabs in this state. North Carolina allows candidates to request a recount in the event of close vote margins or if error is suspected.
ALASKA: With just 50 per cent of the vote counted, results could take until next week to be announced. There are three electoral college votes up for grabs in this state. Alaska allows candidates to request a recount regardless of the margin.
The Associated Press declared Joe Biden the winner of Arizona early Wednesday, but most other major news networks have yet to follow suit.
“The Associated Press continues to watch and analyze vote count results from Arizona as they come in,” said Sally Buzbee, AP’s executive editor. “We will follow the facts in all cases.”
COURT CHALLENGES TO COME?
Beyond recounts that could shift the allocation of the 270 electoral college votes, with so much at stake and already such a fractiously contested election, both Republican and Democratic legal teams are gearing up for a series of court battles.
These could drag out the final declaration of results for weeks, if not months.
Trump has already threatened to take the election to the U.S. Supreme Court, hinting he is hopeful for a favourable outcome on account for the recently-secured Republican majority among its benches.
The U.S. Supreme Court ended up deciding the result of the 2000 presidential election, which led to Republican George W. Bush winning the presidency. In that instance, the winner wasn’t clear for more than a month.
However, it is not possible for Trump to take the matter directly to the top court in that country claiming overall election fraud.
Republicans would have to allege vote-counting problems in individual states and take their legal fight from lower courts up, which they are already setting the groundwork for by filing a series of legal challenges in key states.
Under U.S. federal law, states have until Dec. 8 to finalize their ballot count. Moreover, the electoral college does not actually “meet” until the Monday after the second Wednesday in December to award their votes. This year, that meeting is on Dec. 14.
The inauguration of the next U.S. president is scheduled for Jan. 20, 2021.
With files from Patrick Cain, Nicole Bogart, and The Associated Press
